Does It Pay to Contact the Same Voters Across Multiple Elections

Abstract

Voter mobilization by unions and union-led coalitions has garnered considerable attention from scholars and is seen as an important political tool. To raise turnout in key regions, union-led groups often mobilize potential voters across multiple elections. However, researchers have yet to longitudinally track individual voters to measure the effects of cumulative contacts on turnout over time. This study provides such an analysis, using a panel of almost 100,000 individual voters over an 18-month period and five elections. Controlling for known determinants of voting behavior, this study employs negative binomial regressions and estimated marginal means to quantitatively assess the total and marginal effects of multiplecontacts on turnout. The results indicate that, relative to no contact, each level of cumulative contact significantly influences cumulative turnout over time. The largest total and marginal increase occurs at two contacts, with marginal declines after two. The results vary by type of contact and voter ethnicity.